Tuesday, January 15, 2008

New Roy Rounder Blog

I have a new idea that I wanted to share with you.

I call it the "All-In Factor".

No limit Texas Holdem poker is the game of choice for most
card players these days... I know I certainly prefer it. But
a lot of my opponents don't know how to truly USE and
LEVERAGE the "All-In Factor" to their advantage.

What I mean is, going "all-in" is SO POWERFUL and SO
IMPORTANT, yet most players don't know the right times to
make this bold move. They just wait for the "nuts" to come
along and THEN they go all-in. Make sense?

I'd like to share with you some of my thoughts on how, when,
where, and why to go "all-in" against your opponents.

Not only is this move what makes no limit poker so EXCITING,
but this is also the KEY DISTINCTION between limit and no
limit Holdem... and it's why no limit requires more of a
"ballsy" personality.

Contrary to popular belief, the All-In Factor actually adds
MORE SKILL to the game of poker... just not in the sense of
math or odds.

Instead, "all-in" requires the skills of PSYCHOLOGY,
intimidation, and bluffing.

When you learn the right times to go all-in, you'll have a
consistent EDGE over your opponents... and THAT, my friend,
will help you beat the game over and over and over (even
when you don't have good cards).

OK, let's get started.

One of the core principles of poker is that it's always much
easier to BET than it is to CALL.

I mean think about it: You can make a BET without actually
having good cards-- you might be on a bluff... you might be
"representing" the board... you might just have middle
pair... and so on.

But to CALL a bet, you want to have a strong hand. Because
now your OPPONENT is representing good cards. If you don't
have a read on him, then it's going to be harder to CALL his
bet.

I look at it this way: It's much easier to SHOOT a bullet
than to DODGE a bullet (and I'm not talking about Aces).

That's one of the reasons why I like to go with an
aggressive style of play. I win a lot more pots even when I
DON'T have good cards... because my opponents are forced to
fold to me.

Anyway... this idea that it's easier to BET than CALL
couldn't be more true than with ALL-IN BETS.

It is TEN TIMES EASIER to push all your money in the middle
than it is to CALL an all-in bet.

When your opponent goes all-in, he has put you to a decision
for all your chips. Your life in the game/tournament could
be OVER with just this one pot.

In order to call, you must be CONFIDENT that you have him
beat.

But in order to make an all-in bet yourself, you just need
to be confident that your opponent will FOLD... or that you
have him beat.

This gives the person MAKING the all-in bet the advantage
every time.

And that leads to our second main principle, which is this:

If you don't risk chips, you can't win chips.

Period.

Now obviously, your strategy should be to MINIMIZE your risk
and MAXIMIZE your winnings...

But no limit Texas Holdem gives you the unique opportunity
to win big pots with all-in bets, even when you don't have
the best hand.

The All-In Factor is what allows you to BULLY your opponents
and take a DOMINATING position.

One of the best times to go all-in is to STEAL a pot from
your opponent... but when you steal pots, you must be sure
the hand meets these conditions:

1. You want OUTS. If your opponent calls, there should be
cards left in the deck that can help you still win the hand.
Even if the odds are not good, you want outs.

2. You must have a solid read on your opponent. If you're
stealing a pot, you must be confident the other player is
going to fold.

3. You want good positioning. This isn't as important as the
first two conditions, but positioning is what usually allows
you to get a read on your opponents.

Let's look at an example...

Say you've get dealt 8-7 of diamonds while you're on the
button. That means you've got a "hidden hand" with the best
positioning.

Three players limp-in and the action is to you.

You raise the pot to $15... a nice raise in this $1-2 no
limit cash game.

The small and big blinds fold.

But then Brian, who's under the gun, comes back over the top
of you and raises it to $30.

Ouch. You forgot that Brian is a smart player who doesn't
play anything but premium hands while under the gun. He
limped-in, which was the "red flag" that he had something
good.

Anyway, the action goes around and Jared-- the guy to your
right-- ALSO calls the bet of $30.

So it's $15 more to call... and the pot size is already up
to $80. With your positioning and the pot odds, you decide
to call and see a flop.

You don't like the way this hand is going so far, because
now you have $30 invested with just suited-connectors... and
you're putting Brian on a hand like A-K, A-Q, or maybe
something like pocket Jacks. If he had anything better he
would have been more aggressive than simply raising $15.

OK, so the flop comes out:

3s-4s-5s

Wow. Interesting flop. 3-4-5 of spades.

Brian bets $10 into the pot. You know this flop didn't help
him one bit... the only reason he's making this small bet is
because he raised before the flop. You can tell right away
that he doesn't like what he sees on the board.

Jared mucks his hand.

So now the action is to you. There's $90 in the middle.
You've got about $350 more in chips, and Brian has about
$225.

THIS is one of those times to consider going all-in.

You don't have a single spade... and that's not good. But
you do have the gutshot straight draw. There's a 16.47%
chance that a six will hit on the turn or river.

But that's not why you're going all-in. You want to make a
move at this pot because you've VERY confident that Brian is
going to fold.

For all Brian knows, you could have two spades, or the
straight, or a straight draw and flush draw, or even a
straight flush.

The truth is, Brian probably has the best hand right now
with two overcards... he may even have a high spade. But
that won't be enough for him to justify calling an ALL-IN
bet.

Brian's smart... there are simply too many cards out there
that can beat him. So you go all-in and he mucks it...
making you $90 richer.

When stealing a pot like this, be sure it's worth the risk.
The fewer players in the hand, and the more money in the
middle, the better the payoff is to you.

The key is knowing that your opponent is going to fold. If
you're up against someone who's too smart (or too dumb) to
muck it, then you're in trouble.

That's where the OUTS come in.

Let's say Brian looked at you and said, "Well, I know you've
got the flush, but I can't lay this down." And then he
called... flipping over an Ace of hearts and an Ace of
clubs.

Now you're in trouble, of course. But at least you left
yourself some outs... you've got a 16.47% chance of hitting
that six. And you've also got the slight chance that two
more spades come out or the board makes a straight (which
would be a split pot).

And last but not least... if everything goes wrong and you
lose this pot to Brian, you've still got $125 in chips.

Which brings me to my next point... and that is the SIZE OF
YOUR STACK.

Stack size is an extremely important component of the All-In
Factor. Here's what I mean:

First of all, if you're going to play a hand aggressively,
you always know that it COULD lead to all-in bets. That's
why you want to go after players with SHORTER stacks than
you.

If the worst case scenario occurs and you lose an all-in
match, at least you're not out of the game.

This has a secondary benefit, too...

If a player has fewer chips, he'll be easier to "push
around" and "bully". That lowers your risk further.

Of course... this gets more complicated.

You want to be very careful about stealing pots or making
stone cold bluffs against anyone who's "short-stacked".

If you've got $400 in chips and your opponent has $40 in
chips, you wouldn't make the same kind of bluff as you did
against Brian in the example.

A player who's short-stacked is ITCHING to move all his
chips in as soon as he picks up ANY type of hand. So you
can't bluff him out of the pot.

What you CAN do, however, is put the short-stack all-in
BEFORE THE FLOP when you have something decent... therefore
putting him to a decision for all his chips. If he calls, it
will probably be a loose call, and you have a chance at
winning a good pot.

If he folds, you win the blinds. And if he wins, you only
lose 1/10 of your stack.

Let's look at another quick example. Say Brian has $40 in
chips and you've got $400 in chips. You're third to act
before the flop, which isn't very good positioning. Brian's
second to act.

Brian goes all-in with his short stack. You look down to see
pocket Kings. You know you've got him beat. What should you
do?

The answer is NOT to call. Instead, you should ALSO go
all-in. With Kings, you don't want multiple players in the
hand seeing a flop... You just want to take Brian's $40 and
the blinds that are already in there.

You must make a move to scare out the remaining three
players behind you... otherwise there's a good chance you'll
get run down.

Let's say you just CALL, and then Drew also calls with an
A-8 suited.

The flop hits: A-4-J

And now you lost the hand... because Drew caught his top
pair.

But if you had moved all-in before the flop, Drew and
everyone else would have folded. Then it'd just be you and
Brian... as Brian flips over his losing pocket 8's.

That brings up another good point:

Players will make LOOSE CALLS to all-in bets when there's a
chance at eliminating someone from the table.

This is most relevant in tournament play.

You see, eliminating someone from the table means each
player is CLOSER to finishing in the money...

So it's in everyone's BEST INTERESTS to "knock off" the
short stack.

This is something you can use to your advantage when YOU are
playing short-stacked. If you pick up a monster hand, you
can be assured that you'll get lots of action with it... and
if it holds, you might even TRIPLE up (or better).

But that's also a reason why you cannot make an all-in BLUFF
when you're short-stacked. You can't bluff anyone out of a
pot because you don't have enough chips to scare them off.

"All-in" is only intimidating when you have lots of chips.
When you DON'T have lots of chips, your opponents will be
HAPPY you're all-in... because it means you're that much
closer to getting eliminated.

Even if you're NOT short-stacked, this principle is true
when facing players who have a LOT more chips than you.
Let's say you're 4th in chips at a 6-man table... with about
$80 in front of you.

Don't try to bluff at a pot with an "all-in" against the
chip leader, who's got $400. He can afford to make a call
with just a mediocre hand or a draw.

For him, $80 won't hurt his stack much... and the chance of
knocking you out is worth the risk.

So when WOULD BE the right time to go all-in when you're
short-stacked?

The obvious answer is "when you have a hand". But as you
know, you won't always get good cards.

As a general rule, I "make my stand" when I'm getting down
to about ten times the big blind. Lower than that will be
too short-stacked to make bluffs that will scare anyone out
of the pot.

With more than 10x the big blind, I'm usually able to steal
some blinds and get myself back in the game.

If I run into a monster, or get outdrawn, oh well. There's
nothing I can do.

But usually, since I make my stand based on chip stacks,
positioning, and sensing weakness, I WON'T get any callers
to my bold "all-in" and I'll rake in the pot.

This is also one of my fundamental techniques for not
getting "blinded to death"... and for staying in a game even
when I'm NOT catching good cards.

OK, let's review:

The "All-In Factor" is a key technique for no limit Texas
Holdem. Not only does it separate limit from no-limit... but
it also separates the "men from the boys", so to speak.

When you go all-in WITHOUT a monster, be sure you have OUTS.
These will come in handy over the long term.

Don't bluff against someone who's got way more chips than
you... and don't bluff when you're the short-stack at the
table.

If you're getting low on chips, make your all-in move when
you're getting down to about 10x the big blind.

If the short-stacked player at the table goes all-in and
you've got a big hand, don't CALL. Be sure YOU go all-in
too... that way you scare the other players out and decrease
the chances of getting run down.

Remember... it's always easier to BET than CALL, and you can
never win what you don't put into the middle.

The All-In Factor is a strategic maneuver that you can use
to "own" your opponents and win more money at the poker
tables.

But it's not the only one.

There are TONS of strategies, tricks, "plays", and
step-by-step techniques in the game of no limit poker.
_Roy Rounder_

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