Playing monster draws

Playing Monster Draws in Texas Hold'em

Many Texas Hold'em experts believe you shouldn't put all your money in on a drawing hand. While that's true in many cases, it doesn't apply to monster draws. A monster draw is one in which you have fourteen outs or more -- fourteen or more cards that will improve your hand after the flop.

Let's say, for example, that you put your opponent on pocket aces or pocket kings. You, on the other hand, hold 6h-7h, and the flop comes 3h-8h-9s. To improve to the best hand, you could hit one of the nine remaining hearts to make a flush, or six other cards -- tens or fives -- to fill the straight. Don’t include the 10h or 5h because they've already been counted in the flush category.

That would certainly be considered a monster draw! You'd have fifteen outs with two cards still to come.

In fact, it would make your hand the best hand.

Obviously, your seven-high doesn't beat A-A, but your hand will win more often than the aces will; your monster draw will improve to the best hand a little over 56% of the time.

As a rule, thirteen outs after the flop makes you very close to 50/50. Fourteen outs makes you a small favorite, and, as I mentioned before, fifteen outs makes you a decent favorite over your opponent. So, in knowing this, let’s now consider how to play these types of hands after the flop.

Betting on drawing hands after the flop is often called semi-bluffing, but it isn't exactly bluffing when your drawing hand is statistically the best hand, is it?

A semi-bluff gives you two ways of winning the pot: Your bet forces everyone to fold; or, your opponent calls your bet and you fill your drawing hand.

Therein lies the real power of the monster draw.

By playing these hands aggressively you either force your opponent into submission or get all of your money in as a slight favorite. Either outcome is good for you, but having your opponent fold to your aggressive bet produces a slightly better result in the long run.

Playing monster draws in this manner will also help add deception to your game; opponents will have a much more difficult time putting you on a hand.

Let me illustrate. Suppose I've raised before the flop with A-A, and the flop comes 9h-3h-6s. Normally, this is an excellent flop for a big pair, as the only real threat, at this point, is someone holding a set (three nines, three sixes, or three threes). However, if someone is in fact holding a set, my chances of winning the pot would be slim to none. I'd have only a 9% chance of hitting one of the two remaining aces to win the hand.

So what should I do if an extremely tight player goes all-in against me on a flop like that?

Well, I'd probably fold my aces. That would be the right play.

If, however, I were playing against a loose opponent who aggressively pushes on big draws, I’d be more likely to call his bet. While it's easy for me to put a tight player on a set and fold, it’s trickier to face a loose player who raises my pocket bullets.

That’s an important lesson. You want that loose and deceptive image for yourself. That way, when you do flop a set, opponents will likely give you action, thinking that maybe you’ve raised with a drawing hand.

Also, it’s important that you make your aggressive bet on the flop -- don’t wait for the turn.

Here’s why: Your odds to win the hand with only one card to come decrease dramatically. A hand with fifteen outs after the flop is a 56% favorite, but if you don't improve on the turn, that number drops all the way down to 34%.

That percentage is so low, that, if your opponent makes a large bet on the turn, he could shut you out of the hand -- something he couldn't do to you on the flop.

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