Defending Jeff Shulman's 9-9 Fold at the November Nine

Defending Jeff Shulman's 9-9 Fold at the November Nine

Let's continue reviewing the lesson plan I created for Jeff Shulman at the World Series of Poker November Nine final table.

Starting play with $20 million in chips and blinds at $125,000/$250,000 plus a $20,000 ante, I advised Jeff to play super-tight and make five times the big blind opening bets when entering pots. Jeff's father, Barry Shulman, who recently won the WSOPE using this same strategy, agreed that this was the best way for Jeff to proceed.

By the way, I correctly predicted that Phil Ivey would also play super-tight poker. Why wouldn't he? Jeff and Phil were clearly the best players; they had ample opportunity to play patiently and wait for great situations to develop. Just let the amateurs melt down, blow up, and give away their chips!

Keep in mind, the pressure on all players was massive. Playing in front of a live audience and ESPN cameras for millions of dollars would surely cause a couple of the final table players to self-destruct.

With the blinds at $200,000/$400,000, Shulman opened for $1.75 million on the button with pocket nines and Ivey moved all-in from the big blind for $6.9 million more.

A little history: Shulman had already folded several times on the button when Ivey was in the big blind. This time, when Jeff raised it up, he assumed that Ivey knew that he had at least a semi-strong hand.

On the live internet broadcast, I said, "Ivey doesn't look super-strong. I think he would move all-in here with A-9 offsuit. Jeff should call with A-Q and maybe even A-J."

Well, Shulman actually folded his 9-9. Word rapidly spread that Ivey had K-Q, which happened to be true.

Pro players Barry Greenstein, Mike Matusow, and Howard Lederer all opined that it was a clear call situation for Jeff and his pocket nines. Not me, I'm in total agreement with Jeff. I think it was a clear fold.

I look at the whole story when I make poker decisions. Did Jeff's 9-9 figure to be good? Yes. Would I make that call in a side game? Yes. So, on the surface, it didn't appear to be a good fold.

But it was a fold that would leave Jeff with $14 million - more than enough chips considering the deep structure in place at the final table. With $14 million chips, Jeff could easily wait for a better situation where he could go against one of the weaker players.

A call, however, would leave Shulman with either $7 million or $25 million. The former would cripple him, put his tournament in jeopardy, and probably force him to play big pots with weaker holdings.

I love the fold because I love to protect my chips. Better to fold and wait until some other players are eliminated and then put your chips all-in when you know you have the best hand. That's how to make a big lay down.

Jeff followed his plan perfectly. A few hours later, he was able to move all-in with A-K against Joe Cada's A-J.

One all-in pot in ten hours of play is the definition of risk-free poker!

Then, with only five players remaining, Jeff again had Cada all-in with J-J against Cada's 3-3 but Cada got lucky and outdrew Jeff as a four-and-a-half-to-one underdog.

There's no doubt in my mind that Jeff's 9-9 fold was solid, especially when you consider the complete story. One thing's for certain, Jeff Shulman deserved a better outcome.

Next week, I'll discuss an even more controversial fold by Shulman with A-K pre-flop.

-Phil Hellmuth